Microsoft set to storm security market - Gartner

Posted on 6 Jul 2006 at 17:22

Research firm Gartner expects Microsoft to take a 40 per cent share in the security market for small businesses within two years.

Nicole Latimer-Livingston, principal research analyst for Gartner, told us that the software giant would also see success in the enterprise space as well.

'We believe that by YE08, Microsoft will have captured 15 per cent of the enterprise market for desktop security products in firms with 1,000+ employees and 40 per cent of the market in those with fewer than 1,000,' she said. 'Overall, we believe that security will become a way for Microsoft to deliver a new type of lock in.'

Microsoft was decidedly coy about how closely the Gartner projections mapped to its own plans, and despite our requests for information, said it would 'not comment on rumours or speculation'.

Although the security market is showing signs of consolidating, there is still plenty of money to be made. Gartner pegged it at more than $4bn last year and expects the segment to show double-digit growth in the short term before the popularity of buying product suites over individual component products pressures pricing.

And it's right in this space that Gartner thinks Microsoft can steal a march and clean up.

'We believe that Microsoft's entry into the antivirus market will have a huge long term impact on the shape of the market,' said Latimer-Livingston. 'Microsoft's impact will be first felt by the vendors who focus on the consumer and SMB segments. Microsoft's opportunities are large, especially in endpoint security protection where the multibillion AV industry has been slow to respond to emerging threats. Although, Microsoft's products will not be best-of-breed, they will be "good enough" for SMBs and will grow over time, as SMBs favour simplicity, ease of use.'

According to Gartner, last year's titans were unsurprisingly Symantec and McAfee, which together cornered nearly three-quarters of the market (72.4 per cent). Yet it has been Microsoft that has led with its managed OneCare consumer offering, to which Symantec and McAfee have reacted, releasing their own 'me-too' offerings in the same vein under the respective Genesis and Falcon monikers.

But aside from OneCare, there's relatively little to show in terms of actual Microsoft security products. There are the rebadged products from its acquisitions: Sybari's management suite and GIANT's antispyware. But it remains difficult to assess just how much traction Microsoft has in the security space at this early stage.

Certainly Microsoft's rivals are confident that Redmond won't have it all its way. Sophos' senior technology consultant Graham Cluley pointed to a number of reasons businesses might be wary of buying security from Microsoft.

'Without a doubt, Microsoft has done lots of positive things about improving their security in the last couple of years - but may find it has a long way to go before the average techie is convinced they have changed their spots... Every time news stories emerge of new vulnerabilities being discovered in Microsoft's software, their image as a credible security vendor is in risk of being further tarnished,' he said.

The other big hurdle is that it is at cross-purposes with itself. Its dominant position makes it the biggest target for cyber-miscreants, and its security products will be equally popular. Microsoft, understandably, is doing what it can to maintain that dominance, but when this includes not supporting other platforms, it's shooting itself in the foot when it comes to making a success of its security products. When it bought Romanian AV outfit GeCAD, it only took on the Windows developers, and with Sybari it dropped support for other platforms.