Stand-off expected in Blu-ray HD DVD battle

By Simon Aughton

Posted on 11 Aug 2006 at 13:13

Neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD are likely to achieve a dominant position as the market for high-definition DVDs takes off, according to an industry analyst.

Screen digest, the self-styled pre-eminent source of business intelligence, research and analysis on global audiovisual media, says that both will coexist until combi-format equipment become cost-effective and eventually dominates, mirroring the current market for recordable DVDs

'Given the vested interests on either side, we believe that the most likely outcome at present is...that the two formats will coexist until they give way to affordable dual-format solutions,' said Ben Keen, Screen Digest chief analyst. 'Overall though, the net result of the format war and the publicity it has generated will be to dampen consumer appetite for the whole high definition disc category.'

Screen Digest believes that by 2010 just under one third of total spending on video discs in the US, Japan and Europe will be generated by sales of high definition formats. Few households will opt to replace their existing DVD libraries. Instead, market growth will come primarily from the premium prices charged for the new formats.

Graham Sharpless, author of the HD DVD, Blu-ray Disc and the future of home entertainment: A strategic analysis report said that Blu-ray and HD DVD will not enjoy the same level of penetration as DVD.

'The success of DVD was due to a single format that offered better quality and greater convenience than the VHS format that it replaced,' he said. 'This time both formats support similar features.'