Microsoft expects Vista-inspired surge in piracy

Posted on 24 May 2006 at 16:38

Microsoft expects the launch of Vista next year to bring with it a surge in piracy.

Yet the focus of that piracy is likely to be Windows XP, according to Michala Alexander, head of Microsoft's anti-piracy programme in the UK.

'We expect the effect of Vista will be to increase Windows XP piracy rates massively,' she told us. 'Every time we introduce a new version of a product, there's always a rapid increase in the piracy rates of previous versions.

'What happens is that the counterfeiters need a couple of months to sort out their box designs, holograms and so on, but they've still got to keep their business ticking over so they pump out more copies of XP.

'We need to make the most of that window of opportunity [to sell Vista].'

She said her antipiracy team has already spotted counterfeit versions of Vista on eBay, but these aren't presented as boxed products. Rather, they had been downloaded off Microsoft's MSDN developer network and burnt to CD. 'Rest assured,' she said. 'Microsoft is on the case.'

eBay is not the only angle of attack for the antipiracy team. Since the launch of the Keep IT Real campaign last July, Microsoft has had teams of people walking the beat, launched legal campaigns against persistent offenders and seen the roll out of its Windows Genuine Advantage (WGA) initiative, prompting PC users to validate their copy of Windows XP online.

The campaign hit its stride in February, as the full version of WGA hit the UK. Since that point Microsoft has ratcheted up out-of-court settlements with counterfeit traders in the UK to the tune of one a week: 19 to date.

Settlements range from £1,000 to £25,000, although a recent agreement with one William Ling over a civil action brought by Microsoft for damages in the region of £12m was described as 'substantial' by Alexander and not within that range.

The effect, says Alexander, is a drop in the UK piracy rate. When the campaign launched in July, the UK had a piracy rate of 16.7 per cent. It's now running at 15.45 per cent.

The company stands up pretty well in the UK on an overall comparison. The 15 per cent total is peanuts compared to the 2005 average piracy rate of 27 per cent, as claimed in the Business Software Alliance global study announced yesterday.

At that rate, the cost to the industry is reckoned to be in the region of £965m for 2005. What's more, the UK rate hasn't changed since 2004.

Microsoft wants to nail piracy of its own products down to 11.7 per cent over the next three years, and with the initiative still building momentum, this looks at least achievable. But you still have to factor in the Vista effect.

Author: Matt Whipp