Vista delay has silver lining for Intel - Forrester

By Matt Whipp

Posted on 24 Mar 2006 at 14:31

Microsoft's Vista delay could provide Intel with an unexpected Christmas present.

So say analysts at Forrester, who predict that the absence of the next version of Microsoft's flagship Windows operating system in PCs sold this holiday season might be the window of opportunity it needs to get some traction for its ViiV home entertainment platform.

On the whole, analysts Paul Jackson and Ted Schadler decided the Vista delay to the consumer launch was unfortunate but necessary if the reason behind the postponement was a desire to ensure the product ships in as secure a form as possible.

Even so, the big US OEMs look set for a bumpy ride sales-wise. Forrester predicts that Christmas PCs will still be sold on the promise of Vista by including an upgrade voucher so that customers can upgrade when Vista finally comes into view.

Such a complicated arrangement, however, will be a tough sell and an extra overhead to the companies to boot. But if they don't shift boxes at Christmas time, they're unlikely to be successful in doing so a month later when Vista is officially sanctioned for release, and everyone has entered a period of not buying very much at all after the Christmas spree.

Finally, the main damage suffered by Microsoft from this will be the PR bloop of 'five years and counting between operating system releases and a steadily diminishing feature list' for Vista, they say. However, XP will inevitably continue to sell.

So Microsoft probably won't see its Vista returns until the next big sales push: the back to school period later in the summer. And with Redmond's fiscal year ending in June, big Vista revenues won't show until its next fiscal year.