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Antispyware

The likes of Lavasoft, says its product Ad-Aware 'far surpasses the offering from Microsoft.' But it seems unlikely - given historical precedents of browsers and media players - that consumers will feel much motivation to pay for a solution when they already have Microsoft's one free.

Raimund Genes, Trend Micro's President of European operations, is more downbeat. 'There is some threat to the antispyware industry. I think a lot of independent antispyware companies stand to lose or go out of business. No, I think they will not survive,' he said.

However, if the antispyware community doesn't act, perhaps the EU may take an interest on the anticompetitive aspects of such a move. Says Genes: 'If [Microsoft] say they will bundle [antispyware] for free, then maybe the European Commision will look into it. They already sent us a request for information about the Symantec merger with Veritas, so they're very hot on this.'

Andrey Nikishin, Head of strategic development and Market research department, at Moscow-based Kaspersky, which provides a highly respected antivirus engine used in both corporate and consumer products, agreed: 'From a users' point of view, this step is really promising because users can get good anti-spyware software for free. However, from business point of view the situation looks very familiar, sort of déjà vu - when Microsoft has released Internet Explorer, the browser market ceased.'

Genes added that Microsoft already presents an attractive target for attackers, and its security products will do likewise. There have already been viruses that turn off its antispyware solution. 'Maybe we'll see more viruses because of this,' he says.

Antivirus

In his speech at the RSA, Gates also outlined plans to release an antivirus product for consumers by the end of the year, which will later be available through for Sybari products, a company it acquired that provides a front-end for multiple virus engines.

Sophos' senior technology consultant Graham Cluley said: 'I think a lot of antivirus companies breathed a little bit of a sigh of relief. Perhaps they thought the announcements would be more significant, but all that was said was a consumer version of antivirus would be available by the end of the year. They bought their antivirus company 18 months ago, so if this is the turnaround time, let's hope their updates are a bit quicker.'

Antivirus companies are now seeing Microsoft as a direct competitor. Something that Genes said Microsoft had previously promised it would not do. 'Microsoft pitched Service Pack 2 as its security offering at an IDC conference in the middle of last year and promised that it would not compete with the antivirus industry. One week later in an interview with the Financial Times, Steve Ballmer said that he believed there was a business opportunity for security for Microsoft,' he said.

Certainly Cluley too thinks that Microsoft 'in the consumer market could be successful,' threatening the likes of McAfee and Symantec.

While McAfee were not forthcoming

'Later, there will be lots and lots of court examinations, and Microsoft will lose - but too late, because more than half of users will already have the antivirus solution from Microsoft installed and they won't change it. To prevent such situation, the main antivirus industry players should deliver the "preventive blow" and should not allow Microsoft to release its antivirus for free.'

The problem Microsoft faces in the consumer space is that it needs to combat the perception of its products as being insecure. One way is to offer additional security products. If it makes them free, it stands to face the wrath of the industry it seems set to dispossess. If it charges, its Windows customers will feel scammed being asked to pay for something that protects them from flaws in the operating system - which they have already paid for.

There's no doubt that viruses don't always attack flaws in Windows and can use other vectors, such as pure social engineering. But as the company everyone loves to hate, it's unlikely that Microsoft will escape this perception.

At the enterprise level, Microsoft is also faced with challenges. Gates said that it will make its antivirus engine available through its Sybari product. Trend Micro doesn't license its engine to Sybari, but Genes said that there are questions to be addressed for those that do.

'There's a big question over how will McAfee react. Will they continue to license their engine for the Sybari product? Microsoft will have access to the technology of McAfee, Symantec and the other engines it supports, such as the SDKs,' he said.

Because when Microsoft is building its own antivirus engine, what competitive advantage might it gain from having that information. A recent MarketWatch article on the subject recounted an anecdote from an antivirus CEO who said he had stumbled into the wrong room at a Microsoft meeting and found himself in another on the subject of 'Deriving Innovation from Vendors'.

Sophos does license to Sybari but Cluley had fewer concerns over any technology drain. 'They don't get to see any confidential information. We provide an API and SDKs, but they don't see our source code, they don't learn anything extra,' he said.

Customers

There are also questions for customers. Genes said: 'We've talked with a lot of customers. Enterprises say they will not rely on Microsoft for security. They have questions. Sybari customers are worried about Microsoft's end of life support. Will they continue to support Exchange 5.5, Domino? This is an opportunity for us to talk to Sybari customers for business.'

Microsoft has already told us that it will discontinue support for Sybari on Linux. Cluley agreed that Microsoft will probably extend its Windows policies to Sybari. 'My feeling is that they will want to push customers to the latest versions of its products,' he said.

Yet Cluley did not see Redmond as presenting that much of a threat. 'Most enterprise level customers we have talked to would rather go with a single-focussed company rather than a company that also makes Xboxes and Age of Empires. They want a better level of service and faster response times.'