Gartner warns Linux market greatly inflated

By Matt Whipp

Posted on 1 Oct 2004 at 10:18

Linux desktops are being increasingly bought to install pirated copies of Windows, according to Gartner UK.

Around 40 per cent of Linux desktops give the free operating system a very short shelf life before being ousted in favour of a pirate copy of Windows, according to the report. In emerging markets such as a parts of Asia, where Linux is more popular, the figure is as high as 80 per cent.

Gartner predicts that while the market share of Linux will reach about 5 per cent this year, according to the numbers of systems shipped, the actual market share of those systems that continue to run the Open Source operating system will be nearer 1.3 per cent.

By 2008, Gartner reckons Linux will have shipped on 7.5 per cent of the world's PCs, but result in a mere 2.6 per cent market share in terms of installed base - on a par with Apple.

The idea that you are not paying for the operating system as Linux is 'free' may be driving some to choose a Linux PC in the belief they are only paying for the hardware. Subsequently finding a pirate copy of Windows for a dollar or two poses few problems for those in Asia. And in a way, it indicates that when cost isn't a barrier, people prefer Windows or at least the vast range of software available for it.

Microsoft for its part is attempting to bring down the price barrier that puts a fully-fledged copy of Windows out of reach of many in developing markets and economies by launching its pared back Windows XP Starter Edition in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, and most recently in Russia and India.

However the Open Source Industry Association in Australia challenged Gartner's findings, saying that the logic was at best 'tenuous' and that the conclusions also inferred that pre-installing Windows encouraged the use of pirated Windows applications such as Photoshop and Dreamweaver.

A spokesperson for the OSIA said that Gartner would do well to look at the low piracy rate accorded to Open-Source software before casting Linux in such a light.