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Web "will last 500 years"

By Nicole Kobie in Oslo

Posted on 14 Oct 2010 at 09:31

Web pages written today will still be readable in 500 years, according to Opera's chief technology officer Hakon Wium Lie.

At an Opera event in Oslo, that firm's CTO and so-called "father of CSS" noted his former colleague Sir Tim Berners-Lee predicted over a decade ago that HTML4 - the current web standard - would still be readable in 200 years.

In 500 years time, people are still going to be talking about web pages

"I’m going to up him," said Wium Lie. "This is going to last 500 years. That’s not a random number, it’s very convenient number, as none of us are going to be around and you can’t come back and say hey, you were wrong."

"In 500 years' time, people are still going to be talking about web pages," he claimed. "They're still going be able to read the code we’ve written today."

That longevity is because of the open standards that make up the backbone of the web, he said, noting Tim Berners-Lee's project won out over commercial projects because it was free, open and based on standards.

"In order to make sure it is still legible, we need to make sure we use the standards and we agree on them, and that no single company can dominate here," he said.

"We think that the web is even greater than us; it’s going to outlive us, so we should take great care of it," he added.

He said the web is comparable to Gutenberg's printing press, not only in its scope and ability to bring information to many people cheaply, but its longevity. "The printing press is the only invention we can really compare to the web," he said. "The web's going to have the same effect on the world as the printing press did on Europe.”

Web's not dead

Wium Lie referenced a story in Wired earlier this year that suggested the web was dead. "As you can imagine, we disagree at Opera."

He noted that the Wired article separated out video and web traffic. "I would argue that video is part of the web," he said. "It's embedded in pages. When people go to YouTube, they’re still on the web."

"The web isn’t shrinking, the web is growing enormously," he said. "Video may use more bits, it’s not really about using the most bits. At Opera we believe we should use as few bits as possible to make room for more people."

The argument also suggested that apps would take over from web pages, a theory Wium Lie disagreed with. "We think native apps are a stop gap solution, and the web is going to provide the final answer," he said. "The web is now becoming truly world wide. We reach more people on the web than on any other digital platform.”

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User comments

Web "will last 500 years"

We'll have to wait and see.

Sorry people, I couldn't resist.

By vikarmo on 14 Oct 2010

The web isn't dead - but this isn't a balanced article either...

I've read the "Wired" article that is mentioned here and it's fair to say that it acutally has some merit. It's not surprising that the head of Opera is critical of it, perhaps a more balanced appraisal would have been fair.

What the 'Wired' article was aiming at is the reality of what big business and commercialism means to the world of IT. The idea of a free, open and standardised single global platform is a utopian viewpoint. However, the reality is that businesses will always want to develop their own platforms to help their products stand out from other vendors. They will also want to protect business models and revenue streams, and do what ever is required to ensure that their product grows (and then dominates), securing it's place as the market leader.

To an extent, what we are looking at is the old Capitalism vs Communism argument. We either encourage competition and individualism, or force everyone to live under the same umbrella by the same rules in an "equal" society.

I think that the 'Wired' article is also correct in assuming that native apps tied to internet based services is taking a firm grip. A native app allows you to have a presence on the desktop or mobile space that a web app can never achieve. The guys at Spotify probably have several reasons for developing a fat client based serviced, and I'm sure one of these reasons is to allow them to have a real presence on the desktop.

The native app built into the mobile and TV space also helps businesses to push their products into the faces of consumers. It's likely that the businesses such as NetFlix will sign up to deals with hardware manufacturers, ensuring that their TV service will dominate the market. This will be helpded along by TV hardware manufacturers only supporting a limited range of online TV services, delivered via native apps on the TV or set top boxes.

Perhaps in the long term the global single standard will win out, but guys like Hakon Wium Lie have the issue of what drives businesses and the economy to deal with first.

By glenthedog on 14 Oct 2010

I'd be surprised if it made 50 years!

I'm not going to speculate on the exact technology but all the current trends in processing power, display technology, storage and AI I would be very much surprised if we would recognise the net in 25 years, never mind 50 or 500.
One day we might even get speech recognition to work (side-swipe at futureologist Ray Kurzweil).

By milliganp on 14 Oct 2010

Is HTML a technology or is it a language?

English may provide some clues as to what could happen.
Anglo Saxon English was replete with concrete nouns, words for objects but not so many for abstract concepts. HTML is incapable of providing an intelligent framework simply because we still don't fully understand how consciousness develops or if it is possible to replicate.
When the Christians came to the British Isles they brought the Bible. The Bible brought with it Greek and Latin and so English widened its vocabulary to include more abstract words.
In the next 500 years I think it's reasonable to suppose that we'll find better ways to create artificial intelligence. If we're able to create web sites and content from abstrations so we'll need a language that can talk or code abstractions into websites.
Also, if artificial intelligence is successful then it's very probable that whatever is created will create it's own language.
Just as English is an organic system, evolving to suit the needs, hopes and dreams of it's speakers, so any future language used by artificially intelligent creators will develop it's own language for whatever purpose it proposes.
Researchers have already used intelligent algorithms that evolve to "solve" a particular problem, web language could evolve in a similar fashion.
500 years ago English was "Middle English" - the language of Chaucer. While it would seem strange to a modern audience, it is pretty much modern English all be it with a few idiosyncracies. Grammar remained constant but what increased was the vocabulary.
Maybe 500 years from now what we'll have is HTML with a similar grammar but an increased vocabulary.
Perhaps if artificial creators do "write" code they'll do so in the language they were taught.
Also, does HTML "communicate" in the same way that English allows its speakers to communicate.
Interesting times ahead

By simontompkins on 15 Oct 2010

Arguably the language will last forever as long as the standards are available, documented and adhered to.

Considering how much the web has changed in the decade I've had access to it I can imagine in another it will have changed again. I honestly don't think it's possible to predict where we'll be in a century considering the incredible progress technology has brought us in the last hundred years.

One thing's for certain though: someone, somewhere will deliberately ignore the standard to try to corner the market.

By bubbles16 on 15 Oct 2010