Investors brush off concern over Microsoft sales dip

 

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Posted on 20 Jul 2009 at 07:51

Microsoft will likely report the first annual sales dip in its history as a public company, but investors are looking beyond that for upbeat comments on Windows 7, signs of a tech sector recovery, and even a deal with Yahoo.

The question for investors when the world's largest software company reports quarterly results on Thursday is whether it can present enough optimism to maintain the momentum that has pushed its share price up by 63% since early March.

Tech heavyweights IBM and Intel ratcheted up expectations last week by blowing through Wall Street forecasts and setting ambitious outlooks that suggest the worst may be over for the sagging computer business.

Microsoft, whose software drives more than 90% of the world's PCs, stands to benefit as it prepares to roll out its new Windows 7 operating system in October.

"There's been a sentiment shift," says Todd Lowenstein, a portfolio manager at HighMark Capital management. "People are starting to get excited now about the visibility of Windows 7 - it's got good reviews and it's got some pent-up demand."

"Microsoft's turned the corner in a lot of its businesses," adds Lowenstein, a manager of HighMark's Value Momentum mutual fund, which holds about 530,000 Microsoft shares.

Aside from Windows 7 - which should help erase bad memories of its poorly received predecessor Vista - Microsoft has a new version of its Office suite of applications in the works, and it's finally making headway against Google with its six-week old Bing search engine.

After months of intermittent negotiations, and an aborted takeover bid last year, Microsoft finally looks ready to strike an internet search and online advertising deal with Yahoo, according to a source familiar with the situation. An announcement could come before the results on Thursday.

"The sooner these two decide to bring the best of what they both have together and then jointly go after the market, the more it will benefit both," says Lowenstein.

PC recovery

The broader technology economy could be moving in Microsoft's direction.

Last quarter's worldwide PC shipments fell about 3% from a year ago, a much smaller drop than expected in the depths of a recession. Analysts are now talking about growth in PC sales returning in the fourth quarter.

With Microsoft's Windows 7 scheduled to launch in late October, that could bode well for the company's fortunes.

"The new product pipeline, combined with even a modest rebound in IT spending growth, could have significant impact on Microsoft's top-line" in its new fiscal year, according to a Goldman Sachs analyst report last week.

Goldman put Microsoft on its top stock picks list, calling it a "conviction buy" last month.

If the stock rises after earnings, it could trigger an "investor snowball effect", according to Goldman. "The stock was under-owned for a while - it was in growth stock purgatory," says Lowenstein. "It hadn't delivered the higher expectations that some of the other software companies were producing."

If growth fund managers rush to buy an outperforming Microsoft stock to rebalance their positions, that could push the share price even higher, Lowenstein adds.

Even after its recent surge, Microsoft stock is still reasonably priced relative to comparable investments.

Based on Friday's closing price, Microsoft shares are trading at 13.3 times expected earnings per share for fiscal 2010, according to Reuters Estimates.

By comparison, Apple shares are trading at 23.4 times expected earnings for fiscal 2010, Google at 17.4 times and IBM at 11 times.