Mixed expectations for Vista launch - analysts

 

Gallery

By Alun Williams

Posted on 25 Jan 2007 at 17:08

It is Microsoft's biggest release in five years, but do not expect long queues at shop doors, say analysts.

The consumer and small business editions of Windows Vista, the software giant's latest operating system and planned replacement for the elderly Windows XP, goes on sale on 30 January, but some experts expect a less enthusiastic response than that seen with the releases of XP in 2001 or Windows 95 in 1995.

David Bradshaw, principal analyst at Ovum, says there will be two main factors affecting uptake.

'Anyone buying a computer will get Vista after this month,' he said. 'There will be a slight blip in sales of computers from people who have held off from buying to avoid having to upgrade.'

'It's not unreasonable to say 20 per cent of computers actively-used will be on Vista by the end of the year, given that consumer computers last five years or less,' he explained.

He added that adoption will be faster than with the business version, which launched on 30 November. 'It's more of a big deal for them, so they tend to be conservative,' Bradshaw said, suggesting application and device compatibility as major concerns, especially with many firms using bespoke software.

'We think it will outstrip the business side, as all new PCs will have it anyway and geeks who really want the latest will buy it,' said Dennis Szubert, principal analyst at consulting firm Quocirca. 'We're not sure it'll be as big as XP, which was better value for money,' he said, adding that there is no strong reason for most people to upgrade other than 'it looks pretty'.

Domestic users may be dissuaded from upgrading by the technical challenges of a new operating system as well as the cost. Some users will need to upgrade their hardware - in particular RAM - in order to meet the minimum requirements, while the most basic version of Vista starts at £154.99 inc VAT, with Vista Basic, £250.00 inc VAT for Vista Business and up to £325.00 inc VAT for the fully featured Vista Ultimate edition.

Microsoft is hoping happy home users of Vista will spur adoption within the business community, and vice-versa. 'The home-office/work-office crossover is a known phenomenon, especially with mobile phones,' Bradshaw said.

Szubert doesn't see consumer users swaying businesses to upgrade Vista, but expects that turnover to instead be triggered by normal hardware refresh cycles.

PC manufacturers and vendors contacted by us, including Dell, were cautious about forecasting and unable to comment. In the US, retailers CompUSA, BestBuy and Circuit City each said they are planning to keep some stores open until midnight on launch day to allow customers to purchase Vista as early as possible.