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Who will win the battle for control of the web?

Posted on 26 Nov 2010 at 10:44

Tom Arah investigates the war between Apple, Microsoft, Google and Adobe for web domination

In the 20 years since Tim Berners-Lee produced the first web browser, our expectations of what the internet can deliver have changed beyond all recognition.

However, the core experience of browsing of HTML-based pages has remained largely intact. Now that’s all set to change.

A series of critical breakthroughs – massively increased bandwidth, the demand for rich media, cloud computing, the advent of wireless connectivity and the rise of mobile devices – has created the foundations for the next generation of rich internet-based apps.

Each of the big three computing companies – Microsoft, Apple and Google – has its own radically different vision to promote, as does the world’s biggest creative software company, Adobe

Apps that won’t only be accessed via a desktop PC or laptop, but on smartphones, tablets, TVs and all manner of other internet-connected devices.

Control of this new evolution of the web is up for grabs. Each of the big three computing companies – Microsoft, Apple and Google – has its own radically different vision to promote, as does the world’s biggest creative software company, Adobe. And HTML itself is changing, too.

The stage is set for an enormous battle between these computing titans, and the value of the prize is incalculable: what price can you put on a company that holds the keys to the internet? It isn’t only an opportunity and challenge for these major players, however.

If you’re a web designer or developer, you need to understand the battleground, the strengths of the opposing armies, and what skills and tools you’ll need to get yourself a piece of the action.

One by one, we’re going to examine the case for each of the contenders in the war of the web and, with the help of industry experts, assess which – if any – is most likely to emerge as victor.

Adobe and Flash

The first contender to offer an all-encompassing vision for what it calls “the next chapter of the web” is Adobe. Its Flash technology began life as a way of adding bandwidth-efficient graphics to HTML pages.

Today, more than 75% of web video is delivered via Flash and more than 99% of internet-connected desktop computers can view Flash content, according to Adobe.

More than 75% of web video is delivered via Flash

Almost unnoticed, Flash has become a near-universal web runtime. Since taking over development from Macromedia, which it bought five years ago, Adobe has built Flash into the very heart of its print, web, video and e-learning applications – as have other software developers.

The days when the creation of Flash content was limited to Flash Professional are long gone. Now you can produce engaging, interactive Flash content directly from a host of applications including the two dominant professional publishing programs, QuarkXPress and InDesign. Meanwhile, the Adobe Flex SDK allows developers to create web apps based on Flash.

David Coletta is an example of the new breed of Flash/Flex-based developer. He was involved in the creation of Buzzword, “a word processor for the web”, which is now part of Adobe’s Acrobat.com range of online services.

Talking to PC Pro, he says he was looking for “three critical requirements: support for a very rich user interface, high enough performance to re-flow a wysiwyg document on every keystroke, and zero install,” when creating Buzzword. “Flash was the only choice,” he concluded.

Coletta’s new project, Noteflight, is “an online music writing application that lets you create, view, print and hear music notation with professional quality”.

Coletta has taken full advantage of Adobe’s range of creative and development applications to produce Noteflight, and Flash’s graphics and media handling to deliver it. Like Buzzword, it’s another example of Flash’s ability to deliver a desktop-style computing experience, combining rich design and powerful performance via the cross-platform web.

There is, of course, one platform Flash simply can’t cross. Apple has steadfastly refused to allow Flash onto the iPhone/iPad, blocking Adobe’s every attempt to replicate its desktop dominance in the mobile market.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs is ideologically (some might say, pathologically) opposed to the idea of Flash appearing on Apple devices, seriously curtailing Adobe’s write-once, play-anywhere philosophy.

Industry watchers claim Apple’s intransigent attitude isn’t necessarily terminal for Flash’s chances of widespread mobile adoption. “Adobe’s position looks relatively strong, given that most device platform vendors are backing Flash,” said Ovum’s principal analyst, Tony Cripps, citing support from Google, Microsoft and BlackBerry maker RIM. “Developers will tolerate a degree of fragmentation.”

Microsoft and Silverlight

The company with most to lose from a shift to web-based, cross-platform computing is Microsoft. At one stage it looked like Microsoft would buy Macromedia to get its hands on Flash, but in the end it chose another route: create its own player platform.

Microsoft’s solution is based on a modern, Flex-style split between presentation and programming. Key to this is XAML (eXtensible Application Mark-up Language), which enables development of design-rich desktop applications for any system with the WPF (Windows Presentation Foundation) installed.

Crucially, Microsoft has also created a lightweight subset of the full WPF specification called Silverlight and a cross-platform, cross-browser Silverlight player that developers can target primarily using C# or Visual Basic.

Jon Harris used to work for Macromedia and is now senior product manager for Expression at Microsoft. He highlights strengths such as Silverlight’s simple out-of-browser implementation, its proven Digital Rights Management, and the fact that .NET has more than four million developers worldwide compared to around 100,000 for Flex.

The company with most to lose from a shift to web-based, cross-platform computing is Microsoft

More generally, Harris is keen to stress that, unlike Flash, “the platform was built from the ground up, specifically to deliver compelling applications on the web. The platform is architected to maximise performance; the controls are designed to make editing and styling them fast and simple; the design and development tools have been created to allow a seamless workflow from concept to completion.”

The web isn’t Silverlight’s only strength, however. The UK-based financial software consultancy firm, Scott Logic, develops data visualisation apps for its clients in both Silverlight and Flash/Flex.

However, Silverlight has the upper hand when it comes to making the most of existing code. “With Silverlight we can pretty much reuse the codebase – we can easily port a web app to the desktop,” Scott Logic developer Gergely Orosz told us. “We have an app that uses 95% of the same code base for the desktop, browser and [forthcoming] Windows Phone 7 applications.”

Throw in the huge leverage that Microsoft can bring to bear through its other interests – Windows, Office, Internet Explorer and so on – and it’s clear Flash has a fight on its hands.

However, not everyone is convinced that Microsoft’s platform has a future. Freelance developer Ian Smith devoted himself to Silverlight because it allowed him to create sophisticated “Minority Report-level” web apps and port them to Windows phones.

But he says Microsoft has failed to win over the developer community. “At PDC a year ago, [Microsoft’s chief software architect] Ray Ozzie stood up and said, ‘this will be our premiere UI,” Smith told us. “Microsoft hasn’t been able to deliver on the interest [from developers].”

He is also worried about the competition. “I was working on a [Silverlight] project with a very large motoring company and everybody was very excited,” said Smith. “And then three guys turned up with iPads.”

Which leads us neatly on to...

Apple and iOS

After winning the battle for the desktop, Microsoft might have thought it had successfully seen off arch-rival Apple. However, Apple isn’t only back in the game but back on top.

Apple began its reinvention with the launch of the iPod in 2001, which enabled the company to develop its touchscreen OS (now dubbed iOS) and iTunes; both the desktop app and the web store. In 2007, it was a natural step to turn the iPod into the iPhone.

In 2010 Apple did it again, introducing the iPad. Critics dismissed it as an oversized iPhone, but the extraordinary demand – more than half a million sold in the first week – shows that Apple has another huge hit on its hands. After defining the smartphone, Apple now has the chance to define and own the tablet form factor and, with it, “the best way to experience the web”.

Traditional browsing remains important for Apple (see HTML5, opposite), but the company has also radically changed the way we think about the web.

The revolution began in 2008 when Apple introduced an SDK to enable Mac-based, Objective-C developers to create dedicated applications able to make the most of the iOS environment and internet-based connectivity. There are now more than 250,000 such applications, covering everything from simple games to medical tools such as the iStethoscope.

An excellent example of what can be achieved with the iOS SDK is Theodore Gray’s Elements application for iPads. This is an interactive eBook that lets users rotate samples of all 118 chemical elements in full stereoscopic 3D, while links to Wolfram Alpha (which Gray co-founded) provide extra information such as live commodity prices.

Gray credits much of the application’s success to the Cocoa Touch API. “When you get something to work, it automatically works beautifully,” Gray told us. “For example, if you create a scrolling view, it automatically responds in a wonderfully natural way to swipes and throws.”

However, Gray is in no doubt about the platform’s main attraction: “The number one, two, and three most important factors are that the iTunes App Store makes it possible and socially acceptable to sell things for about $1 to $20. This means that all kinds of clever and wonderful things are getting done now that weren’t being done before, because developers have to eat, the same as everyone else.”

With hardware, software and the App Store working together, Apple has brilliantly created a walled garden where everything just seems to work for the company, developer and end user alike. With Apple, the next-generation internet experience is here already.

Google and Android

Based on mainstream media coverage, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the only force in handheld computing is Apple, but that isn’t the case.

In fact, according to the recent Canalys report for Q2 2010, Apple trails BlackBerry maker RIM in the US smartphone market and Nokia worldwide.

But the strongest performer of all in terms of rising market share – with a staggering 886% year-on-year growth in Q2 2010 – and the new US smartphone market leader with 34%, is Google Android.

Android’s strength isn’t being tied to a particular manufacturer. Instead, Google open-sourced most of Android’s code and founded the Open Handset Alliance (OHA) with dozens of interested partners.

As Vic Gundotra, Google’s vice president of developer platforms, pointed out during his keynote at the launch of the latest Android 2.2 “Froyo” release, this has given the platform huge momentum: “It’s hard to believe that in only 18 months we’ve achieved more than 60 compatible devices.”

Forthcoming Android 3-based tablets from multiple manufacturers are likely to see similar explosive growth.

Anyone can build any hardware they want around the Android software; no approval required

Tim Bray, co-editor of the XML specification, is now developer advocate at Google and an enthusiastic blogger on behalf of the Android platform.

He’s evangelical about what the platform and SDK have to offer. “The barriers to entry are very low for the several million people on the planet who are comfy with the Java programming language.”

However, according to Bray, the most important strength of Android isn’t its power but its openness: “Anyone can build any hardware they want around the Android software; no approval required. Anyone can sell any program they write via the Android Market; no approval required.”

The implicit comparison is clear and Bray isn’t afraid to make it concrete, talking of Apple’s “sterile Disney-fied walled garden surrounded by sharp-toothed lawyers”.

Vic Gundotra goes even further saying that, if it wasn’t for Android, we’d face “a draconian future, a future where one man, one company, one device, one carrier would be our only choice. That’s a future we don’t want”.

Not long ago, both companies were allies in the desktop-based battle against Microsoft, with Google CEO Eric Schmidt even serving on Apple’s board of directors. Now the gloves are well and truly off.

HTML5

Apple and Android are redefining how people think of the web but, strictly speaking, their apps aren’t web-based at all: the functionality they offer isn’t delivered via the browser and is tied to individual devices rather than an open URL. So what’s happening to traditional HTML-based design and development?

Here there’s huge excitement because, more than 13 years since the release of HTML4, HTML5 is finally on its way.

Again, Apple has played a central role thanks to Steve Jobs’ refusal to support Flash or other players on his handheld devices. This has given HTML5 its main selling point – universal reach – and its main purpose: to deliver Flash-style capabilities directly within the browser.

To take advantage of HTML5, designers and developers must first brush up their knowledge not only of the new HTML5 tags and attributes, but also the latest versions of the other open web-standard markup languages, including CSS3 and SVG.

For developers to then go on to produce HTML5 applications, they need to master JavaScript and HTML5’s new APIs for managing things such as web storage, offline handling and drawing to the browser canvas.

Designer/developer Ian Devlin’s interests in HTML5 evolved naturally from producing sites for himself and others, and he’s explicitly set out to explore HTML5’s new capabilities at HTML Laboratory.

Devlin claims HTML’s biggest strength is “it’s already widely known and it doesn’t take a lot of learning to begin to use the new elements and attributes that HTML5 has to offer”. In particular, he highlights the benefits of the new video and audio elements for media playback without plugins, and HTML5’s new in-browser form handling and validation.

Until the specification settles and support becomes universal, dedicated HTML5 tools can’t come into play. However, as Devlin points out, “the latest releases of Chrome, Firefox, Safari and Opera already support a host of the new HTML5 features”, and to take advantage all you need is “a simple text editor such as Notepad++”.

As an extension of the open standards on which the web is built, and the only platform with the potential for universal access across all desktops and handhelds, HTML5’s future is bright.

Who will win?

These are the main opposing forces in the battle to define the next-generation web, but the most important issue for designers/developers is which platforms are going to win and which will lose.

There’s no doubt which are currently winning. Steve Jobs has rammed home Apple’s advantage by refusing to support Adobe Flash or Microsoft Silverlight on handheld devices and promoting HTML5 in their place.

According to Jobs, the player is no longer necessary and Apple is simply “leaving the past behind”. Both Flash and Silverlight look to have been caught in a classic pincer movement, unable to move forward while being attacked from the rear.

Flash developer David Coletta recognises the significance of what he calls Flash’s “iOS hole” and that “HTML5 is on a trajectory to take over from Flash”.

There’s a surprising degree of agreement between all the experts we spoke to that the best option for delivering a project is HTML5, wherever possible

He’s putting these beliefs into action and is currently developing a musical score-viewing application with HTML5 and SVG, and specifically targeting WebKit-based browsers, since that will enable the development of an iOS native application.

There’s a surprising degree of agreement between all the experts we spoke to that the best option for delivering a project is HTML5, wherever possible. “It’s the only one that rolls down a true multi-platform environment for apps,” said Ovum’s Tony Cripps.

Jon Harris from Microsoft cautions that “inconsistent implementations of the draft HTML5 specification and immature tooling” mean that HTML5 won’t fully come into its own “for at least the next five years”.

However, with enthusiastic browser support from Apple, Google, Adobe and Microsoft, it looks safe to say that the HTML-based web will remain the dominant internet platform, and that HTML5 will take it into new territory.

But that isn’t necessarily the end of the road for players. David Coletta hasn’t given up on Flash for desktop development, saying, “Flash is still the only choice for big, complex apps with a rich UI”.

Flash is still the only choice for big, complex apps with a rich UI

He also points out that, “if ubiquity is critical, Flash has to be part of the picture until most everyone has upgraded to (the HTML5-supporting) Internet Explorer 9. In some sense, this is Flash’s window to maintain its relevance: it has to climb up the food chain, moving more quickly than the browsers.”

In fact, all the experts we spoke to agreed that player-based solutions still have an important role to play. As Jon Harris from Microsoft puts it: “Ultimately, HTML5 and RIA [rich internet applications] platforms will be complementary technologies.”

HTML5 developer Ian Devlin agrees: “I don’t see HTML5 as a replacement.”

Apple developer Theodore Gray is also open to all platforms, but injects a pragmatic note, saying: “you have to go where it’s possible to earn money”.

Mobile web

Players might not be finished on the desktop just yet, but what about the handheld space? Apple has recently offered Adobe a small olive branch, by letting developers use Flash Professional CS5 (and other third-party tools) to create iPhone apps – although Flash itself still isn’t allowed on Apple’s devices. Yet, Microsoft and Adobe certainly aren’t begging for such scraps from Apple’s table and are preparing to go on the offensive.

For Microsoft, this takes the form of the upcoming launch of Windows Phone 7 (WP7). It’s clear that tackling the iPhone head-on was the remit and WP7 is currently generating a buzz around a Microsoft mobile OS for the first time in many a year.

Here, Silverlight takes on a crucial role as the platform for developing iOS-style WP7 applications for delivery via a marketplace. Although developer Ian Smith warns, his “gut feeling is if Microsoft doesn’t get the phone right, there’s a big question mark over the future of Silverlight”.

For Adobe, its recent launch of the mobile-optimised Flash Player 10.1 is key, since it’s the first full player designed for both desktop and handheld. Via the Open Screen Project (OSP), Adobe has attracted dozens of mobile partners, including Nokia and RIM, to support the 10.1 player as well as AIR 2 applications.

Critically, Google is a founding member of the OSP and the first 10.1 mobile player is currently being made available for Android 2.2 handsets.

Together with its incorporation of the Flash player directly into the Chrome browser and the announcement of an open Chrome Web Store for both HTML5 and Flash apps, it looks as if Google is throwing its weight behind player technology and Adobe in particular.

Between Windows Phone 7 and the Open Screen Project, it’s clear that Apple’s walled kingdom is about to come under attack. Until the dust settles, it’s too early to say which company is likely to emerge triumphant. The only safe prediction is that there will be plenty more twists, turns, alliances and battles to come before the war is finally decided.

Author: Tom Arah