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This time last year, the beleaguered PC industry was pinning its hopes on Vista. Although nobody expected queues round the block at midnight, as there were for the launch of Windows 95, PC manufacturers were anticipating that Vista would give PC owners a much-needed reason to upgrade their machines.

Those hopes were dented when the launch of the consumer versions of the OS slipped beyond Christmas, effectively crippling sales of new PCs over the peak buying period. Free Vista upgrade vouchers apparently cut little ice with computer buyers, as most manufacturers reported disappointing seasonal sales.

But more than six months after it was finally released to the public, has Vista finally started to drive PC sales? That very much depends on who you ask.

Microsoft bullishly claims Vista has been a runaway success. "Demand for Windows Vista is strong and our momentum is unprecedented," the company claims in a statement. "For instance, we sold 20 million copies in the first month of availability - a record."

But when you consider the size of the installed PC base now compared with six years ago when Vista launched, the veneer starts to fade from Microsoft's claims of unprecedented success. "You have to remember in comparison to XP the market's now about twice the size," says Gartner research director George Shiffler. "So of course you're going to get, volume-wise, pretty strong uptake."

We don't have to take Microsoft's word for it, the company claims, quoting industry analysts in its response to PC Pro's request for hard evidence of Vista's success. It cites Ovum analyst, David Mitchell, claiming: "Ovum expects 15% of PC users

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will adopt Windows Vista during the operating system's first year, compared to between 12% and 14% for Windows XP, which launched in October 2001. That would make it the fastest-moving OS ever."

Booming PC market?

Microsoft's not only claiming credit for a successful Vista launch - the company says it's sent PC sales spiralling, too. "The PC market has been the main driver of this [Vista sales] increase, and it's having a great impact for our industry partners as well. According to IDC, worldwide PC shipments grew by 10.9% in the first quarter of 2007, and in the US, PC growth was up 3.6% when compared with Q1 2006," the company boasts.

But industry experts cast severe doubt over Microsoft's claims of a rejuvenated PC market. "Vista's had little effect on PC demand. We don't think it's driving PC unit growth," says Gartner's Shiffler. "There had been this big hope that Vista would suddenly drive faster [PC] growth and that hasn't happened. It's not causing people to go out and replace their machines early or causing people who don't have a PC to buy a new one." In fact, Gartner attributes the worldwide PC growth to increased demand from emerging markets.

PC manufacturers are largely guarded about the Vista effect. While Evesham Technology claims that Vista has delivered a noticeable bump to its sales, especially on low-budget systems, multinational PC manufacturers such as Dell refuse to talk specifically about Vista sales, claiming the information is confidential. But Dell's decision to reintroduce XP in April, following an online petition from its customers, is hardly a vote of confidence for Vista.

The business case

If consumers remain wary of Vista, what about businesses? Volume licence customers had Vista two months before consumers - surely they've had time to start migrating? Microsoft, once again, claims everything is going to plan. "On the business side, Enterprise Agreement and Software Assurance renewals are at historic highs (66%-75%), with new agreements growing at a rate of 20%," the company claims. "Gartner and IDC are predicting that Windows Vista will be adopted in businesses in the first 12 months at rates faster than previous versions of Windows."