Posted on December 9th, 2011 by Barry Collins
Will Windows 8 be a free upgrade?
Nothing betrays desperation more than a company inflating statistics for its own end. Over the past couple of months, Microsoft has been inflating a stat about Windows 8 to the size of a hot air balloon.
Despite being probably a year away from launch, Microsoft claims that Windows 8 “represents the single biggest platform opportunity available to developers”. With tens of millions of iOS and Android devices already on the market, how on Earth does Microsoft justify the claim that Windows 8 is the biggest of them all? Because “half a billion PCs could be upgraded to Windows 8 on the day it ships.”
Replace the word “could” with “won’t” and you’ll be much closer to the truth.
It’s ridiculously disingenuous of Microsoft to even suggest that Windows 8 — no matter how good it is — will be such an overnight success. Microsoft is basing the half a billion figure on the total sales of Windows 7 after two years! Considering that Windows 7 won’t support the Windows Store – it can’t, because it requires a completely new application stack that cannot be added retrospectively – it’s not even credible to lump the sales of Windows 7 and 8 together to arrive at that figure.
I’m cautiously optimistic about Windows 8, and don’t share IDC’s attention-seeking view that it will be an “irrelevance” for traditional PC owners. But the only way Microsoft could credibly claim the Windows Store has a potential audience of half a billion users is if it makes Windows 8 a free upgrade from Windows 7.
Microsoft couldn’t do that. Microsoft wouldn’t do that. Would it?
Tags: Windows 8
Posted in: Software, Windows 8
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December 9th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
“represents the single biggest platform opportunity available to developers”
The clue’s in the word single. They will be able to boast the same operating system for phone, desktop and tablet. Nobody else can claim that, so they will be justified.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
No they won’t. The desktop and mobile app stores aren’t directly compatible – partly because many of the phone apps are developed in Silverlight, and will have to be adapted for the desktop.
Barry Collins
Editor
December 9th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
They said ’single’ platform as opposed to single app store.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
BTW. I can write silverlight apps for both the mobile and desktop platforms. A recompile may be needed, but it can essentially be the same software.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Microsoft has recently been copying some of Apple’s bad practices such as missing copy and paste off their first release of Windows Phone 7, being vaguer about future products, trying to lock developers into an App Store from which they take a cut and disabling plug-ins such as Silverlight and Flash from their Metro interface.
Maybe they will adopt some of the few nice things that Apple does like offering the latest version of their operating system as a £20 download for owners of the previous version
December 9th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
“Potential” of course is an infinitely flexible word! I am “potentially” the emperor of the universe.
-
Seriously though, Microsoft could release a free runtime for Store apps running as a layer over Win32 (similarly to Silverlight). This would instantly make the entire store content available on any Windows version.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Maybe it will be a free update to Windows Phone users? There aren’t many of them, but metro is designed for phones and tablets. Metro apps can run on pretty much any hardware, and new phones and tablets have a similar display resolution to laptops.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Well of course time will tell, but its at the very least possible that vast numbers of Windows 8 packages (new gadgets & upgrades) will be sold.
If I were a developer, I’d be interested.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
The real barrier for developers committing is lack of credibility that Microsoft will stick with the plan long enough to achieve critical mass. Microsoft has such a record of launching new partner platforms and initiatives and then just losing interest and leaving the developers high and dry.
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Remember Windows SideShow and the .NET Micro Framework anyone?
December 9th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
@JohnAH – yes, but this is hardly in the same league. This is, as the cliche would have it, ‘Make or Break’.
Whilst the .NET micro framework (which I HAVE forgotten!) may have disappeared, MS have stuck to their guns with .NET and managed code, despite less than enthusiastic take-up in the early days.
As I said in another place MS are ‘Screwed if they do, screwed if they don’t’.
They’ll stick with Windows 8 and Metro, but yes they’ll also dump it after it’s clear it’s as universally hated as some belive it will be.
It’s not a HUGE leap for existing developers using MS tools, though the in-out-in-out (shake it all about) with Silverlight is annoyiong many.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
After only 18 months on sales Windows 7 had sold 350 million copies. Last time i checked, this was more than tens of millions. Windows 8 WILL have the biggest audience by a considerable margin. I’d have thought this wasnt really up for debate
December 9th, 2011 at 7:17 pm
If th revenue model from the win8app store is good enough, it might easily be worth a free upgrade policy. (not allowing for coat of AppStore infrastructure)
December 9th, 2011 at 7:33 pm
“after it’s clear it’s as universally hated as some belive it will be”
With the latest xbox 360 dash update we’ll see if it’ll be a success or not… . But after saying that the kids will get used to it and love it so the rest is history.
Windows 8 will sell millions and the Metro interface will give people what they actually want: “Instant access to information via live tiles”. Standard users, the kids, office workers that come in and do 9-5 need nothing more or nothing less.
December 10th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
A strong Microsoft, alongside a strong Apple and strong Google is good for everyone. If Microsoft are back on the ascendence, it can’t be a bad thing. They are clearly taking multiple leaves out of the other companies’ books, and you can understand why they’re bigging it up.
December 12th, 2011 at 9:22 am
I’d agree that Win8 will be an irrelevance for the average PC owner – if by ‘average’ you mean desktop and laptop.
There simply isn’t anything that is desperately needed in the OS.
Win7 is a success because it is a good OS and, after the Vista debacle, it probably benefited from a lot of Vista users upgrading.
But I can’t see many people going to the trouble of replacing a working W7 installation with W8. That will only be done by people who like bright shiny gew-gaws, most of whom probably use apple anyway.
W8 will, in the main, just take over from W7 as the OS to be installed on new machines.
December 12th, 2011 at 10:25 am
Microsoft may sell Windows 8 through you PC and tablet sales but I think they will have a real problem selling Metro to existing PC users. They do not seem to be selling many phones with the new GUI and I think they will have an even harder job selling it to existing PC users. Okay there are other “improvements” on Windows 8 but none have excited me.
December 12th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
@Fred
There’s a fair bit more to W8 than a ’shiny’ new face. There’s quite a buzz surounding a heavily revised file-system, for example and a new tool called ’storage spaces’, which is reputed to be similar to the old WHS system…
Corporate users will, I’m sure be catered for with enhanced deployment and management and very tight integration inro Server 8 (or whatever its called).
The Metro UI isn’t INSTEAD of an upgrade to W7 its as well as ….
December 12th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
.NET Micro Framework hasn’t disappeared, quite the reverse, it is still in development:
http://blogs.msdn.com/b/netmfteam/
Dev boards and kits to utilise same are readily available (and one is on my Christmas list).
Sideshow is a different problem – MS depend on 3rd parties to implement stuff – particularly hardware, no-one did (or at least not at a tolerable price)
December 12th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
@wittgenfrog
.
The last thing I want is yet more interference from MS with the affairs of my files. I’m already sick and tired of Windows suddenly and randomly deciding that I’m not allowed to access my own data.
.
I had hoped that the ‘new’ file system (FS?) that no one seemed to understand (the only thing the so called ‘expert’ journalists had to say about it was that it was some kind of ‘digital soup’) was dead and burried.
.
If I wanted to be treated like a child with the OS telling me what I could and couldn’t do with my files I’d buy an apple and have done with it.
December 12th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
I wonder if the shift will be as fast as that moving from XP to those later Versions? As we speak I’m still using XP at work and office 2003 LOL!
December 14th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
@Murph,
Actually I knew that netmf was still there – I use it myself! However MS open-sourced it when its intended use for Sideshow failed, and it has since been taken forward by companies like GHI as a microcontroller programming system.
My point is that MS invents these things and just puts them out there to fail. As Google demonstrates, you have to work harder than that actively promoting the idea and subsidising early implementations. This sort of thing is chicken-and-egg: partners need the confidence you are going to stick with it or they will not come aboard. MS seem to have dropped SideShow from W7 when it was only introduced in Vista. Now we have “Location and Other Sensors” in Control Panel, but I’ve never seen a product that integrates with this on the market. I suspect no one will develop anything, expecting it to disappear again in Windows 8!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:45 am
I haven’t seen anything yet to warrant upgrading all my pcs and laptops from XP. As there are billions of XP machines still being used worldwide I’m not alone.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:37 am
@JohnAHind
Are you serious holding up Google as a demonstration of seeing things through?
They put loads out there and see if they fail, that’s how innovation gets done. Not everything will be a success.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:39 am
@Kevin
“As there are billions of XP machines still being used worldwide”
I think you may be stretching the point. As I’ve told billions of people, don’t exaggerate.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
The hype has already started. Last Week BBC Click claimed “next years must have upgrade will be Windows 8″. Must have by whom?
Microsoft has frequently taken a leaf out of Apple’s marketing book, for a number of years they claimed the business PCs sold with a dual load of XP and Vista/7 as being part of the new software sales. In reality it seems that most companies took the downgrade option. I sincerely hope having tried the developer release 8 will bomb but there is little chance of that with the sheep that have to have the “latest” thing.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:57 pm
W7 was a good demonstration of how MS can produce a barely adequate OS & still be no. 1
The days of being so so are numbered though – as an earlier poster points out, if MS are going to make the OS dumb then why not go with Apple – at least it does what it does very well.
So W8 has to be pretty good as an absolute minimum – just to keep in the game – and that is exactly what MS are doing right – just enough to keep in the game…
December 16th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Why upgrade to win8 on a desktop computer that is designed for a tablet? Also why spend another £100+ on a OS that will be full of bugs… I will only update if I have to and when SP1 is out for win 8!
December 17th, 2011 at 10:54 pm
I have searched the web for news of any actual Metro-UI apps under development for Windows 8. Either no one is developing any, or if they are, they are keeping it curiously top-secret. This has my very puzzled.
December 18th, 2011 at 2:58 am
I see a strong following behind Mac OS…Being a Windows and Mac fan. (Mac mostly lately) I see them Windows trying to copy-cat behind Mac but the OS is a cat and mouse game. That being said both oses Mac built on Unix and Window built on NT are dated back to around 1995-96 with nothing more than a more glamorous graphical interface. Come on guys lets develop something NEW not old rehashed behind a new graphical interface……
December 22nd, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Do you know what? I couldn’t be bothered. Next year I’ll be too busy lying on a beach somewhere sipping Pina Coladas and actually enjoying myself and getting on with LIFE rather than getting frustrated over unreliable software upgrades…