Posted on October 17th, 2008 by Tim Danton
State of the netbook nation
In the last six months, I’ve spoken to a variety of laptop vendors about netbooks, and the sheer range of opinions and strategies is fascinating.
This week, for example, I was talking to Thomas Teckentrup, the general manager of Toshiba Europe Computer Systems, and his take on netbooks was decidedly downbeat: “We have to find out the usage of these products”, he said, explaining his company’s late arrival into the market and the fact it hasn’t exactly exploded onto the scene – the Satellite NB100 is only available with one specification, and there are no options. “We [still] have to see for ourselves how consumers are going to leverage the features of a netbook,” he later added.
And to be fair, this is a view very much shared by Dell. When I interviewed Michael Dell himself in late September, he was virtually dismissive. “Certainly we have already entered a product there [the netbooks sector], and there will be additional products coming, and it will be what it will be. [But] I don’t think it’s going be the massive factor in the growth of the industry.”
Contrast that with Acer. At this year’s Global Press Conference in Budapest, the CEO and president of Acer, Gianfranco Lanci, spoke for a good five minutes about the netbook, and made it clear the Aspire One was just the start of its aspirations.
“Internet is becoming part of our life, but people need it to be mobile,” Lanci said. “People in most cases prefer a full internet experience [when on the move] to a limited internet experience on a mobile device. On a netbook you can have a full experience.”
Then you’ve got Asus being similarly bullish. Indeed, an IDC press release that just fell into my inbox declares: “Asus stepped further up [the notebook vendor rankings] to 4th place shipping over 2 million units this quarter, leveraging from the unabated success of the Eee PC product range.”
Of the rest, HP has been decidedly half-hearted with its one netbook offering, the Mini-Note, Sony has actively dismissed netbooks as a “race to the bottom”, although indications are that it will release a netbook some time soon, while the ever-aggressive Samsung has produced one of the sexiest netbooks we’ve seen in the form of the NC10.
It’s obvious that this is a sector that’s having a huge effect on vendors’ sales figures. Here’s a not very beautiful table, courtesy again of IDC, that shows the number of PC shipments (both desktop and notebook) in 1,000s of units in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, in which it compares the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008:
|
Vendor |
3Q07 |
3Q08 |
Share 3Q07 |
Share 3Q08 |
3Q08/3Q07 Growth |
|
Acer (1) |
3,113 |
5,920 |
14.2% |
21.3% |
90.2% |
|
Hewlett-Packard |
4,291 |
5,203 |
19.6% |
18.7% |
21.3% |
|
Dell |
2,351 |
2,659 |
10.7% |
9.5% |
13.1% |
|
Asus |
805 |
2,060 |
3.7% |
7.4% |
156.0% |
|
Toshiba |
1,137 |
1,628 |
5.2% |
5.8% |
43.2% |
|
Others |
10,240 |
10,387 |
46.7% |
37.3% |
1.4% |
|
Total |
21,936 |
27,857 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
27.0% |
Toshiba has good reason to be cheerful as it beat the market’s growth, but both HP and Dell who either entered the netbook market late or half-heartedly, have less reason to shout. On the other hand, the two companies that really excelled – Acer and Asus – are the ones that embraced netbooks wholeheartedly. Even if you remove the boost Acer received due to its acquisition of Packard Bell and Gateway, its sales are still up 63.5%.
Sales, of course, aren’t everything. We hear reports about a high volume of Linux-based netbooks being returned because consumers who bought them on a whim then find the OS too difficult to use, and it’s impossible to know for sure just how much profit Acer and Asus are actually making from each netbook sale. Or even if they’re making a loss.
Nevertheless, it’s obvious that netbooks are here to stay, and the big vendors who’ve traditionally made their money through more expensive notebooks will have to embrace the new form factor if they’re going to make any impression on the market.
And in the end, they’ve nothing to lose. All the signs are that consumers are buying netbooks as a secondary PC in the west, so it’s an additional not a replacement purchase. They also open up the traditionally closed market of education. There’s the opportunity for shared revenue when the netbooks are sold with a 3G contract. And finally, there are promising signs for netbooks in the developing worlds too.
The end result? By this time next year, I’m 93% certain all the major vendors will have some serious netbook offerings, not just their current token efforts, and they’ll all be casting accusing looks in the boardroom as to why they allowed Acer and Asus to pull out such a big lead.
Tags: acer, Asus, Dell, netbooks
Posted in: Hardware
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9 Responses to “ State of the netbook nation ”
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October 23rd, 2008 at 8:34 am
I’m certainly looking to buy a netbook, to supplement my PC & laptop, but for a variety of other reasons:
1) To replace my obsolete Dell Axim by providing a very portable copy of Outlook, Money etc on a larger version of a PDA (effectively getting back to the Psion 5 I used to use for this purpose).
2) To provide back up storage and viewing facilities for pictures from my digital cameras, both on holiday and when out on assignments.
3) To provide portable access to my GSAK database of geocaches when out hunting.
If the manufacturers look around they will found countless other uses for netbooks, besides their student uses and web access uses!
I’d like a Dell Mini with better battery life and more storage – guess it’s being called a Toshiba NB100!
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:45 am
That’s an interesting point – that to look around and you’ll find countless uses of netbooks. It’s reminiscent of PCs in the early days, when manufacturers thought they would be just a business tool – and now they’re being used in a stunning variety of ways that no-one could have predicted.
Fascinating to see what you’d want to use a netbook for as well, although you may be disappointed by the Toshiba’s battery life. The Dell gets just under four hours in our tests, and I don’t expect the NB100 to last any more than the 3hrs 30mins Toshiba claims.
October 23rd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
“We [still] have to see for ourselves how consumers are going to leverage the features of a netbook” – “Asus stepped further up [the notebook vendor rankings] to 4th place shipping over 2 million units this quarter, leveraging from the unabated success of the Eee PC product range.”
Is TO LEVERAGE the latest business buzzword that sounds good and has no particular meaning?
October 26th, 2008 at 12:30 am
It’s indicative of our failing society that you’re falling over yourselves to purchase an item such as a netbook because you’ve been told it’s cool, but that it’s only after you’ve bought it that you realise you need to fabricate a purpose for having it. It’s almost as bad as buying a new car every three years because there’s a new model available.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:13 am
@Mark “Leverage” is one of those terms that’s been bandied about by marketing people in tech companies for many, many years. It’s so annoying I wrote about it in a column last year:
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/columns/174381/prolog.html
The one to look out for this year is “experience”. Microsoft is particularly keen for things to be experiences.
October 31st, 2008 at 5:32 pm
george bush – not sure there is no identified purpose. My girlfriend wants one as it is inexpensive way to do a bit of work or browse the internet while I’m playing away at games on our main desktop. Equally I see plenty of people on the commuter trains with them, presumably again because of cost, and also because they are a lot easier to handle and operate than regular laptops in confined environments due to their smaller size. One thing that does concern me though it the creeping price. For us, their cheapness was the big selling point. The fact that prices are creeping ever and ever up now means that even now I am looking heavily at the lower end of the laptop market.
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:17 am
hewlett packard notebooks…
A Trackback is one of three types of Linkbacks, methods for Web authors to request notification when somebody links to one of their documents.)…
November 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I have used Sony Picturebooks, particularly whilst traveling on the train to work. Checking e-mails and writing VBA code on a 1024×480 screen is not easy. I now use a version with 1280×768 screen which is about the minimum I can work with now having got used to 1600×1200 and 1920×1200 screens.
All portable devices are a compromise and it does depend upon what you are wanting to use them for to determine if they are fit for purpose or not. Besides the netbook devices a number of low energy machines also running versions of Linux are being heavily publicised in the wake of the netbooks.
Each Netbook manufacturer supplies a different version of Linux and even with a range of bundled applications it is difficult to know whether they are able to do even basic Internet browsing. Some sites require Flash or video codecs that are not supported or playback is not adequate on the netbook, even with 1.6GHz Atom processors.
For students the keyboard and screen size, of Netbooks, comes at the cost of weight and limited battery life over devices like the Nokia N800 and 810 internet tablet which also have 800×480 screens. For PowerPoint presentations, word documents and business applications you need more compatibly than Open Office provides.
The more expensive Netbooks offer Windows XP and hard drives. These are indistinguishable, to the consumer, from lower end notebooks.
Between high spec mobile phones like the iphone and Nokia N95/96, pocketable devices like the Internet tablet N800 and the low end notebook the only thing going for the Linux netbook is price. Without cheap access on the move to the internet, an internet only device with such limited screen size is only going to disappoint.
November 28th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
I take your point about the Toshiba’s battery life, and have bought a Samsung NC10 instead. It’s presently on its way to me, but I have every hope of using it before Christmas.
Chris